Let’s Unlearn That: why thoughts aren’t necessarily facts AKA The “Tyranny of Certainty”

Today we’re going to be starting a series I’ll be doing once a month called “Let’s Unlearn That” actually suggested by one of my medical students when she realized that she was answering a lot of questions from her non-medical friends about myths they’d heard on social media or something they’d “always known” growing up (but isn’t actually true). So speaking from a psychiatric perspective, I’d like to discuss what I spend the majority of time working with my patients on: YOUR THOUGHTS AREN’T FACTS.

 I’ve discussed this in a couple of episodes on depression where we talked about the R.U.T.T. method.  When your thoughts are “in a rutt” and how your feelings are REAL, they are UNDERSTANDABLE, they are TRANSIENT (like all feelings), but they are not necessarily TRUE.

 What do you mean, Dr. A?  How could my thoughts NOT be true?  Because the same brain that tells you to slow down at a yellow light because the red light is coming is the same brain that may try to build a case to some invisible judge that you’re a horrible worthless (fill in the nasty adjective here) person when you’ve just made a simple mistake.

 Your brain likes to be right more than it likes reality.  What do I mean by that?  If the brain had a motto, it wouldn’t be to “seek truth” it would be “don’t be wrong.” Why?  Because the brain doesn’t want truth.  It wants consistency.  Your brain would rather “be right” than test actual, factual reality.

 You’ve probably seen this in your depressed friends or if you’ve ever experienced depression yourself.

  • A depressed brain that finds endless proof it’s worthless

  • An anxious brain that treats uncertainty as danger

  • A traumatized brain that expects threat and finds it everywhere, even where it doesn’t exist

Why? Cognitive Consistency Beats Accuracy

The human brain is a prediction machine.  It’s developed this from an evolutionary standpoint to keep us safe.  It constantly asks: “What do I expect to happen next?”  And then it scans reality not to see what’s true, but to see whether reality confirms or violates that expectation.

This is called predictive processing.

From an evolutionary perspective:

  • Being consistent mattered more than being correct

  • A wrong but stable belief could still keep you alive

  • A constantly updating belief system wastes energy—and energy is paramount to survival

So the brain evolved to minimize prediction error, not maximize truth. And one of the easiest ways to do that?

👉 Interpret reality so you’re right.

Confirmation bias is essentially the brain’s favorite drug.  It says:

“I look for evidence that supports my belief.”

It’s also asks you:

  • What do you notice?

  • What do you remember?

  • How do you interpret ambiguity?

  • What do you ignore?

Neurologically:

  • The dopamine system rewards coherence

  • Being “right” reduces uncertainty, which decreases  stress response

So when your belief is: “I’m worthless” your brain isn’t trying to hurt you. It’s trying to stabilize your internal model of the world.

In depression – the brain is locked into negative priors or unfounded “laws” if you will. A prior is a belief that exists before new evidence exists.

Common depressive priors are:

  • “I’m a burden”

  • “Nothing will change”

  • “I fail at everything”

Neurologically speaking, what’s happening here?

1. Prefrontal Cortex Suppression: so you have reduced cognitive flexibility and less ability to generate alternative interpretations.

2. Hyperactive Default Mode Network—So your brain is replaying past evidences of failure.

3. Negative Memory Bias: The hippocampus or the space in the brain that stores long-term memory preferentially encodes negative experiences so you’re dismissing positive events as “exceptions to the rule.”

So when something neutral or even positive happens, the depressed brain says: “That doesn’t count.” But one small failure? “See? Proof you’re a worthless failure.” The brain is protecting its model, not your wellbeing.

OUCH.

For anxiety disorders,  certainty feels safer than hope.  People who suffer with anxiety don’t say: “Something bad might happen.” They say: “I know something bad will happen.” Why? Because certainty—even negative certainty—feels safer than uncertainty.  Ever hear the phrase “better the devil you know…”?

There are neurologic underpinnings here too:

Amygdala hyperreactivity (remember the amygdala? It’s evolutionarily the oldest, most reptilian parts of our brain that are essentially the SEATS of FEAR and RAGE).  So essentially your threat detection system is stuck on high sensitivity!

Your Insula gets activated so seemingly normal bodily sensations are interpreted as “danger.”

And finally, there is a Prefrontal–amygdala disconnect so logic can’t override fear once the model is set into place.  This is where I tell my patients “Nobody cares what’s for dinner if you’re being chased by a bear.” The problem is you’re NOT being chased by a bear but it certainly feels like it.

An anxious brain would rather be right and miserable than wrong and surprised.

That’s why reassurance rarely works. Reassurance challenges the model—and the model feels like it’s essential to survival.

With PTSD –the Brain Learns the World Is Dangerous

PTSD is where this phenomenon becomes most obvious—and most tragic. In trauma, the brain learns one core lesson:  “The world is unsafe, and I didn’t see it coming.”  So the brain updates its model aggressively.

What changes neurologically:

1. Amygdala sensitization

  • Threat detection becomes hair-trigger.  It doesn’t matter if the stimulus ISN’T dangerous, if it causes surprise, anxiety, or the slightest sensation of unease or fear, we’re automatically shuttled to DEFCON-1.

2. Hippocampal context failure

  • Past danger feels like present danger

  • Time collapses, in some cases this causes dissociation verging into hallucination.  You’re probably familiar with the term “flashbacks.”

3. Prefrontal inhibition

  • Reduced ability to reality-test in the moment

The traumatized brain is constantly asking: “Where is the proof I was right to be afraid?” And it finds it everywhere because the brain must justify its vigilance.

People always ask me: why does therapy take so damn long? So many reasons…but for today, in this context, it’s because challenging people’s beliefs about themselves and the world around them feels like an actual threat.

When you challenge a patient’s belief like: “I’m worthless”

The brain hears: “Your entire predictive system is wrong.”

And being wrong—neurologically—feels like:

  • Loss of control

  • Increased uncertainty

  • Potential danger

So the nervous system responds with:

  • Anxiety

  • Defensiveness

  • Shutdown

  • And in a lot of cases, avoidance.  AKA “screw this, I’m outta here, clown.”

But this isn’t resistance.  It’s neuroprotection.

SO…how do we go about healing from this?  We have to update the internal models, not argue with them. Healing doesn’t happen by debating the brain. It happens by gently introducing prediction errors the nervous system can tolerate. This is when we gently question: “ok, but could it be this instead of that?”

 Therapy is an adult playspace of sorts.  We take ideas out into the open, play with them, question them, examine them from several different angles and see what we can see, and hopefully, see some things differently. 

That’s why:

  • Behavioral activation works

  • Exposure therapy works

  • EMDR works

  • Somatic therapies work

These therapies don’t say: “You’re wrong.” OR “Your brain is a liar.”  They say: “Let’s let your brain experience something new.”  It opens up the “what if” space that allows for small corrections to be made to the system and connections to options OUTSIDE the fear zone and confirmation biases that have been ruling and sometimes ruining their lives.

Small, repeated, emotionally safe disconfirmations slowly loosen up the model.

The brain doesn’t abandon beliefs because they’re false.
It abandons them because they stop working.

If you take nothing else from this episode, take this:

Your brain isn’t cruel. It’s loyal. It will defend whatever story it believes keeps you alive—even if that story hurts you.

And healing isn’t about forcing positivity.
It’s about teaching the brain that it’s safe to be wrong.

If this episode resonated with you, share it with someone whose brain might be trying a little too hard to be right.”

Gina Perkins